New Report: “Collateral Circuits: The Impact of Sudan’s war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya”
Read my latest report: “Collateral Circuits: The Impact of Sudan’s war on arms markets and mercenary networks in Chad and Libya” The war in Sudan has transformed far more than its own frontlines. It has reshaped the security economies of its neighbours, activating new supply nodes and embedding weapons and combatants into cross-border markets that […]
Still in the Game: Ankara’s Quiet Pivot in Libya – A View from Tripoli
Tripoli, the evening of June 4, 2025. Around sundown, I stood on the corniche of Treeg al-Shat near the Waddan Hotel, watching as a convoy of armored pickups moved hastily toward the Radisson Blu “al-Mahary”. The vehicles belonged to the General Security Apparatus (GSA) – a Zintani-led force headed by the Libyan Interior Minister’s brother […]
In Tripoli, A War on Militias Quickly Becomes a War of Militias
The Unraveling of “Stability” in Tripoli
Over the past 24 hours, Tripoli has witnessed a rapid escalation in armed confrontations involving key factions aligned with the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Special Deterrence Force (SDF). This bout of violent clashes began Tuesday evening, when directives from Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeiba had mandated the evacuation by the SDF-affiliated Judicial Security […]
Solving Libya’s economic collapse will require confrontation—not consensus
Turkey’s Syria and Libya strategies add up to a Mediterranean power play
Russia is making a fragile pivot from Syria to Libya. The West should beware falling into a new trap.
Sudan is caught in a web of external interference. So why is an international response still lacking?
New Report: Sudan, Human Smuggling and Refugees
This report examines how Sudan’s civil war has reshaped the country’s human smuggling landscape, highlighting the growing reliance of refugees on smugglers to escape the conflict. It can be accessed here.
Derna’s Man-Made Disaster and the Tragedy of Libya’s Fate
No Country for the Young: The Degeneration of a Libyan Generation
Analyzing contemporary Libya through the prism of its youngest demographic makes it possible to discern the wider social and political transformations within its polity. This chapter builds on literatures pertaining to agency, social mobilization, war economies, and the legacies of wartime violence and mobilization. It details how Libyan youth are increasingly penetrating militarized spaces since […]
New Report: Illicit economies and peace and security in Libya
The brief details the impact illicit economies have on armed groups and political dynamics in Libya. It assesses the state of play of the main illicit markets in the country: fuel smuggling, drug trafficking, mercenaries, arms and ammunition smuggling, and migrant smuggling and trafficking.